Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war

Karin Mayr-Dorn, Gaia Narciso, Anh Dang and Hien Phan ()
Additional contact information
Hien Phan: NCIF

No tep0923, Economic Papers from Trinity College Dublin, Economics Department

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on trade diversion and the labor market outcomes in a third country, Vietnam. We exploit variation in Vietnamese exports following the unexpected and exogenous U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports and find that Vietnamese workers and districts more exposed to the trade war display higher employment, longer working hours, and higher wages as a result of the U.S.-China trade war. The effects are mainly driven by women and non-college-educated individuals. Our findings reveal that bilateral trade policies can have substantial spillover effects on trade flows and labor markets in third countries.

Keywords: trade diversion; trade war (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F16 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2023-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-int, nep-lab, nep-sea and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2023/TEP0923.pdf

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Working Paper: Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0923

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