Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

Annika Camehl and Malte Rieth ()
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Annika Camehl: Erasmus University Rotterdam

No 21-018/VI, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after three weeks. Non-pharmaceutical interventions explain half of the variation in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The policy tradeoff is 1 p.p. less mobility per day for 9% fewer deaths after two months.

Keywords: Epidemics; general equilibrium; non-pharmaceutical interventions; structural vector autoregressions; coronavirus; Bayesian analysis; panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tin:wpaper:20210018

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