Globalization and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Italy

Mauro Caselli, Andrea Fracasso and Silvio Traverso

No 2018/07, DEM Working Papers from Department of Economics and Management

Abstract: We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994-2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associ- ated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import compe- tition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties’ political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time-invariant unobserved e↵ects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have con- tributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far-right parties, whereas only the former has produced a positive e↵ect on the votes of right-wing and traditional- ist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. On the other hand, neither of them has had an e↵ect on far-left parties. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above e↵ects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, the results suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

Keywords: voting; electoral outcomes; trade; import competition; immigration; local labor markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F14 F6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-int and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Globalization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from Italy (2020)
Working Paper: Globalization and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Italy (2018)
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