Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US

Felix Haase and Matthias Neuenkirch

No 2020-01, Research Papers in Economics from University of Trier, Department of Economics

Abstract: The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines dimensionality reduction, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 146 popular macroeconomic and financial variables using different principal component analysis techniques. Second, we estimate Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the principal components as predictors. Third, we pool the models in forecast clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of different specifications. Our weekly forecasts respond to regime changes in a timely manner to participate in recoveries or to prevent losses. This is also reflected in an improvement of risk-adjusted performance measures as compared to several benchmarks. However, when considering stock market returns, our forecasts do not outperform common benchmarks. Nevertheless, they do add statistical and, in particular, economic value during recessions or in declining markets.

Keywords: Forecast Combination; Markov-Switching Models; Shrinkage Methods; Stock Market Regimes; Time-Varying Transition Probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 G11 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 73 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-rmg
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http://www.uni-trier.de/fileadmin/fb4/prof/VWL/EWF/Research_Papers/2020-01.pdf Third version, 2021 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US (2023)
Working Paper: Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US (2021)
Working Paper: Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:trr:wpaper:202001

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