The (Option-)Value of Overstaying

François Poinas and Romuald Méango

No 23-1478, TSE Working Papers from Toulouse School of Economics (TSE)

Abstract: The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advan-tage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the as-sociated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying, and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.

Keywords: Subjective expectations; Intention to overstay; Asylum seekers; Germany; Afghanistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 D84 F22 J15 J18 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
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Related works:
Working Paper: The (Option-) Value of Overstaying (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tse:wpaper:128601

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