A primer on the macroeconomic effects of an influenza pandemic

Steven Kennedy, Jim Thomson and Petar Vujanovic
Additional contact information
Steven Kennedy: Treasury, Government of Australia
Jim Thomson: Treasury, Government of Australia
Petar Vujanovic: Treasury, Government of Australia

No 2006-01, Treasury Working Papers from The Treasury, Australian Government

Abstract: Interest in pandemics has increased dramatically in recent times with the emergence of Avian Influenza and conditions conducive to a global flu outbreak. While understandably most of the focus is on public health policies that might prevent or ameliorate the effects of a pandemic, there is often reference to the possible economic effects. This paper discusses the pathways through which a pandemic might affect the Australian economy. The Treasury macro-econometric model (TRYM) is used to illustrate these pathways. The paper finds that confidence effects and the (large) short term withdrawal of labour are probably the dominant mechanisms through which a pandemic adversely affects the economy. The macroeconomic policy implications flow naturally from these potential economic effects. In particular, policies that restore confidence and consumption, support business in the short term, and promote a quick return to work are likely to be most effective in offsetting the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

Keywords: pandemics; macroeconomic modelling; Avian Influenza (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2006-02, Revised 2006-02
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/1069/PDF/TWP_01_2006.pdf First version, 2006 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2006_1

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Treasury Working Papers from The Treasury, Australian Government Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by The Treasury (Commonwealth of Australia) ().