Does Size Really Affect Turnout? Evidence from Italian Municipal Amalgamations

Silvia Bolgherini and Vincenzo Mollisi (vincenzo.mollisi@unito.it)
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Silvia Bolgherini: Department of Political Sciences, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy;
Vincenzo Mollisi: Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Torino, Torino, Italy;

No 91, Working papers from Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino

Abstract: Evidence on the electoral participation at the municipal level usually points to a detrimental effect of an enlarged size (due to amalgamation) at the following municipal elections. Contrary to previous studies, our results show an overall positive effect of amalgamation on municipal turnout: larger units do not necessarily vote less than smaller ones. In a quasi-experimental Difference-in-difference design following Callaway and Sant'Anna (2020), we find that the final municipal size per se does not explain turnout after amalgamation. Hence the traditional claim that a larger size should depress municipal turnout does not always hold. Cross- and within municipal heterogeneity emerges instead as a crucial lens for explaining such evidence. In particular, municipalities with higher dissent towards amalgamation show higher turnouts at the following municipal election. This article is the first study relative to Southern Europe and considers all municipalities merged between 2013 and 2019 in Italy.

Keywords: Municipal amalgamations; Turnout; Local institutions' Size; Referendum; Consent/dissent; Political efficacy; Difference-in-Difference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D7 D72 H7 H70 H77 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2024-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pol and nep-ure
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