The Welfare Costs of Inflation

Luca Benati and Juan Pablo Nicolini

Diskussionsschriften from Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft

Abstract: We estimate the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation as in Bailey (1956), Friedman (1969), Lucas (2000), and Ireland (2009) for the U.S., U.K., Canada, and three countries/economic areas (Switzerland, Sweden, and the Euro area) in which interest rates have recently plunged below zero. We pay special attention to (i) the fact that, as shown by recent experience, zero cannot be taken as the effective lower bound (ELB); (ii) the possibility that, as discussed by Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (2000), the money demand curve may become flatter at low interest rates; (iii) the functional form for money demand.; and (iv) what the most relevant proxy for the opportunity cost is. We report three main findings: (1) allowing for an empirically plausible ELB (e.g., -1%) materially increases the welfare costs compared to the standard benchmark of zero; (2) there is nearly no evidence that at low interest rates money demand curves may become flatter: rather, evidence for the U.S. (the country studied by Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (2000)) clearly points towards a steeper curve at low rates; and (3) welfare costs are, in general, non-negligible: this is especially the case for the Euro area, Switzerland, and Sweden, which, for any level of interest rates, demand larger amounts of M1 as a fraction of GDP. For policy purposes the implication is that, ceteris paribus, inflation targets for these countries should be set at a comparatively lower level.

Date: 2019-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.vwiit.ch/dp/dp1911.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Welfare Costs of Inflation (2021)
Working Paper: The Welfare Costs of Inflation (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1911

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Diskussionsschriften from Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Franz Koelliker ().