The Death of Conservative Ireland? The 2018 Abortion Referendum

Johan A. Elkink, David M. Farrell, Sofie Marien, Theresa Reidy and Jane Suiter
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Johan A. Elkink: School of Politics & International Relations, University College Dublin
David M. Farrell: School of Politics & International Relations, University College Dublin
Sofie Marien: Center for Political Research, KU Leuven
Theresa Reidy: Department of Government, University College Cork
Jane Suiter: School of Communications, Dublin City University

No 201911, Working Papers from Geary Institute, University College Dublin

Abstract: The outcomes of two recent Irish referendums - on marriage equality in 2015 and abortion in 2018 - have placed contemporary Irish voters in sharp contrast with their long-standing conservative Catholic reputation. These referendums also stand out internationally because of the associated deliberative innovation. This paper aims to explain the watershed abortion vote drawing on theories of generational change, issue-voting, cue-taking and deliberative democracy, using data from an exit poll at the 2018 abortion referendum. We show that age and cleavage effects are key to understanding the referendum outcome. These results offer insight into how societal processes such as rapid secularisation, generational replacement and democratic innovations shape politics. Moreover, voters who were aware of the deliberative innovation were more likely to support the liberal referendum option. To increase willingness to deviate from the status quo, engaging citizens actively in the debate is a fruitful approach.

Keywords: referendums; voting behaviour; abortion; generational effects; deliberative democracy; Ireland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2019-08-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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