COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Going Further with Less?

Tensay Meles, Lisa Ryan and Joe Wheatley

No 202012, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis comes at a complex moment for European climate policy as it pivots from a 40% 2030 emissions reduction target to a European Green Deal that is in better alignment with long-term Paris Agreement goals. Here, the implications of the dramatic fall in economic output associated with the crisis are examined using a representative range of growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, existing policy measures could achieve the 40% target sooner than 2030. However, we find that even in the most severe economic scenario examined, this falls well short of the 50-55% emissions reduction target under the Green Deal. Maintaining the existing 40% target in 2030 with reduced policy measures on the other hand would move European climate policy away from the required path. This analysis indicates the feasibility of increased climate ambition in the wake of the pandemic and supports the Green Deal 50-55% targets in 2030.

Keywords: Climate change policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Economic recovery; COVID-19 economic effects; Energy demand; COVID-19; Coronavirus (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E6 Q43 Q5 Q54 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-mac and nep-reg
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/11418 First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202012

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