Ciclos Político-Econômicos: Uma Análise Empírica para o Estado de Goiás

Vivian de Castro (), Sérgio Fornazier Meyrelles Filho (), Sabrina Faria de Queiroz () and Paula Andrea do Valle Hamberger ()
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Vivian de Castro: Graduada em Economia pela Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)
Sérgio Fornazier Meyrelles Filho: FACE-UFG, Ciências Econômicas
Sabrina Faria de Queiroz: FACE-UFG, Ciências Econômicas
Paula Andrea do Valle Hamberger: FACE-UFG, Ciências Econômicas

No 57, Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Curso de Ciencias Economicas da UFG from Curso de Ciencias Economicas da Universidade Federal de Goias - FACE

Abstract: This paper aims to study the political business cycles starting with the identification of central theoretical and empirical elements highlighted in the literature on this subject. Going through opportunistic, partisan and rational expectations models, we finally test for the possible existence of opportunistic political cycles for the state of Goias. This analysis estimate moving average autoregressive models, for 1995-2010 and 2002-2010, including a dummy variable in order to identify pre-election períods. We find evidence of opportunistic manipulation only in relation to inflation rates, finding no evidences with regard to output's behavior.

Keywords: Cycles; ARMA; Inflation; Output; Election (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2016-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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https://files.cercomp.ufg.br/weby/up/118/o/TD_057.pdf First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ufb:wpaper:057

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