The race for an artificial general intelligence: Implications for public policy

Wim Naudé and Nicola Dimitri ()
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Nicola Dimitri: University of Siena

No 2018-032, MERIT Working Papers from United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT)

Abstract: An arms race for an artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be detrimental for and even pose an existential threat to humanity if it results in an unfriendly AGI. In this paper an all-pay contest model is developed to derive implications for public policy to avoid such an outcome. It is established that in a winner-takes all race, where players must invest in R&D, only the most competitive teams will participate. Given the difficulty of AGI the number of competing teams is unlikely ever to be very large. It is also established that the intention of teams competing in an AGI race, as well as the possibility of an intermediate prize is important in determining the quality of the eventual AGI. The possibility of an intermediate prize will raise quality of research but also the probability of finding the dominant AGI application and hence will make public control more urgent. It is recommended that the danger of an unfriendly AGI can be reduced by taxing AI and by using public procurement. This would reduce the pay-off of contestants, raise the amount of R&D needed to compete, and coordinate and incentivize co-operation, all outcomes that will help alleviate the control and political problems in AI. Future research is needed to elaborate the design of systems of public procurement of AI innovation and for appropriately adjusting the legal frameworks underpinning high-tech innovation, in particular dealing with patents created by AI.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; innovation; technology; public policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H57 O14 O15 O33 O38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-08-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big and nep-ino
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Race for an Artificial General Intelligence: Implications for Public Policy (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:unm:unumer:2018032

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