Consumer Confidence and Elections

Gikas Hardouvelis () and Dimitrios Thomakos

No 3, Working Papers from University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics

Abstract: We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 coun- tries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer con¯dence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the incumbent party and its probability of re-election both alone and in the presence of macro- economic and political variables. The post-election drop is negatively related to the previous run up and is a function of the political - but not the economic - environment. A similar rise and fall characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

Keywords: consumer confidence; national elections; incumbent party; macro-economy; fiscal conditions; political business cycle; EU-15; USA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2007
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-mac and nep-pol
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Related works:
Working Paper: Consumer Confidence and Elections (2008)
Working Paper: Consumer Confidence and Elections (2007)
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