The econometric estimation of the effect of ruble exchange rate dynamics on economic activity

Polina Badasen (), Philipp Kartaev () and Alexey Khazanov
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Polina Badasen: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation

No 14, Working Papers from Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the effect of ruble exchange rate dynamics on economic activity in Russia. We consider the dynamics of both total production and the distinct industries’ output. We apply the SVAR-X approach and analyze the most recent Russian data. We show that the devaluation of Rus-sian currency has positive impact on export-oriented industries, on industries, oriented both on ex-ports and internal demand, and on industries with low share of imports in costs. The negative im-pact is observed only in the construction industry. The ruble devaluation has no significant impact on the economic activity indicators in other industries including the key industries and the industrial production index.

Keywords: exchange rate; output; SVAR models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2015-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-mac and nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upa:wpaper:0014

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