Irreversible investment in stochastically cyclical markets

Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda and Jianjun Wu

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: This paper presents a new framework for studying irreversible (dis)investment when a market follows a random number of random-length cycles (such as a high-tech product market). It is assumed that a firm facing such market evolution is always unsure about whether the current cycle is the last one, although it can update its beliefs about the probability of facing a permanent decline by observing that no further growth phase arrives. We show that the existence of regime shifts in fluctuating markets suffices for an option value of waiting to (dis)invest to arise, and we provide a marginal interpretation of the optimal (dis)investment policies, absent in the real options literature. The paper also shows that, despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has a continuous sample path, the discreteness in the regime changes implies that the sample path of the firm’s value experiences jumps whenever the regime switches all of a sudden, irrespective of whether the firm is active or not.

Keywords: Real Options; Regime-Switching; Bad News Principle; Signal Extraction Problem; Entry and Exit; Industry Life Cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D92 G31 L12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Irreversible Investment in Stochastically Cyclical Markets (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upf:upfgen:1018

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