Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

Antonio Ciccone

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) income shocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate (for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).

Keywords: transitory economic shocks; conflict; weather (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 E32 O11 O17 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-cdm, nep-dev and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (102)

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Journal Article: Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict (2013)
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