Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment

Antonio Ciccone

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expected MSS’s finding to reflect a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

Keywords: Transitory shocks; mean reversion; rainfall; civil conflict. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O0 P0 Q0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-08, Revised 2011-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-dev and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (130)

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Journal Article: Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upf:upfgen:1127

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