EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Local sectoral specialization in a warming world

Bruno Conte, Klaus Desmet, David Nagy (dnagy@crei.cat) and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: This paper quantitatively assesses the world's changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1 degree by 1 degree resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India's Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in nonagriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.

Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-geo
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/1754.pdf Whole Paper (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Local sectoral specialization in a warming world (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World (2020) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upf:upfgen:1754

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (william.carlson@upf.edu this e-mail address is bad, please contact repec@repec.org).

 
Page updated 2024-12-29
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1754