The Impact of Technological Change

Maria Bolboaca

No 1902, Economics Working Paper Series from University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science

Abstract: In this paper, I introduce novel measures of technological change, based on counts of books in the field of technology and technological standardization, in an otherwise standard vector autoregressive model, to show the relative importance of unanticipated productivity shocks, technology shocks, and anticipated productivity (news) shocks, in driving macroeconomic fluctuations. The results indicate that news shocks play a more important role than technology shocks at business cycle frequencies, while in the medium- to long-run technology shocks take the lead. Unanticipated productivity shocks do not seem to be a significant source of aggregate fluctuations regardless of the forecast horizon.

Keywords: productivity shock; technology shock; news shock; business cycle; structural vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2019-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:usg:econwp:2019:02

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