Explaining the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics

Daniele Girardi

Department of Economics University of Siena from Department of Economics, University of Siena

Abstract: This paper studies the correlation of agricultural prices with stock market dynamics. We discuss the possible role of financial and macroeconomic factors in driving this time-varying relation, with the aim of understanding what caused positive correlation between agricultural commodities and stocks in recent years. While previous works on commodity-equity correlation have focused on broad commodity indices, we study 16 agricultural prices, in order to assess patterns that are specific to agricultural commodities but also differences across markets. We show that an explanation based on a combination of financialization and financial crisis is consistent with the empirical evidence in most markets, while global demand factors don't appear to play a significant role. The correlation between agricultural prices and stock market returns tends to increase during periods of financial turmoil. The impact of financial turmoil on the correlation gets stronger as the share of financial investors in agricultural derivatives markets rises. Our findings suggest that the influence of financial shocks on agricultural prices should decrease as global financial tensions settle down but also that, as long as agricultural markets are 'financialized', it might rise again when it is less needed, i.e. in the presence of new financial turmoil.

JEL-codes: G12 G13 Q11 Q13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Related works:
Journal Article: Financialization of food. Modelling the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics (2015)
Working Paper: Financialization of food - The determinants of the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:usi:wpaper:701

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