Financial Integration and China's Global Impact

Rodney Tyers

No 15-02, Economics Discussion / Working Papers from The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics

Abstract: Product and financial market integration determine the global implications of China’s recent growth surge and its on-going transition from export led growth. These alter China’s structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), which in turn shifts the international terms of trade, changing asset yields causing deflationary and then inflationary pressures abroad. The effects are here quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing, in which asset differentiation is used to index financial integration. The growth surge is found to have conferred on the advanced economies gains in their terms of trade, incompletely offset by structural unemployment. By contrast, the global effects of the transition are shown to reverse some of these impacts and to be amplified by further financial integration, particularly for the US.

Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-tra
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