The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources

Anping Chen and Nicolaas Groenewold
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Nicolaas Groenewold: Economics Discipline, Business School, The University of Western Australia, https://www.web.uwa.edu.au/person/nicolaas.groenewold

No 19-07, Economics Discussion / Working Papers from The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics

Abstract: Since 2007 China’s growth has fallen from around 10% to about 6-7% per annum. This paper investigates the experience of this slowdown at the provincial level. We use a vector-autoregressive modelling approach and annual data from 1978 to decompose each province’s growth into various factors. We find that (1) all provinces experienced the slowdown; (2) there is considerable variation in this experience across provinces; (3) national factors dominate the provincial slowdown while province-specific factors explain most of the interprovincial variation; (4) when the national factor is separated into supply and demand components, the supply component dominates.

Keywords: China; growth; slowdown; provincial effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E61 O53 R50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-mac and nep-tra
Note: MD5 = f2d92e4c6b532729611effc750aa9e8e
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: The effects of China’s growth slowdown on its provinces: Disentangling the sources (2019)
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