Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups

Mohana Mondal, Michael Cameron and Jacques Poot

Working Papers in Economics from University of Waikato

Abstract: In this paper we describe the development, calibration and validation of a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting small area (area unit) ethnic populations in Auckland, New Zealand. The key elements of the microsimulation model are a module that projects spatial mobility (migration) within Auckland and between Auckland and the rest of the world, and a module that projects ethnic mobility. The model is developed and calibrated using 1996-2001 New Zealand Linked Census (i.e. longitudinal) data, and then projected forward to 2006. We then compare the results with the actual 2006 population. We find that in terms of indexes of overall residential sorting and ethnic diversity, our projected values are very close to the actual values. At a more disaggregated spatial scale, the model performs well in terms of the simulated normalised entropy measure of ethnic diversity for area units, but performs less well in terms of projecting residential sorting for each individual ethnic group.

Keywords: dynamic microsimulation model; ethnic identity; location transition; ethnic transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 R10 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2021-10-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-geo and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wai:econwp:21/12

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