The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland

Rafal Wozniak ()

No 2011-01, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: In the paper, two indicators, the coincident and the leading indicator, are proposed to represent the aggregated economic activity in Poland. The indicators are constructed with stochastic cycle and trend model. Not only does the presented approach solve the problem of existence of stochastic trends in the observed series, but it also allows to account for a different data span of each series in dataset.

Keywords: business cycles; leading indicators; coincident indicators; dynamic factor model; stochastic cycle; stochastic trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12 pages
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-mac and nep-tra
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http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP41.pdf First version, 2011 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2011-01

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