 Liberalization of trade flows under TTIP from a small country perspective. The case of PolandNo 2015-17, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw Abstract: The empirical ex-ante evaluations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are similar on aggregate but suggest a large heterogeneity of the TTIP impact at the individual country level. We aim to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the possible TTIP effects for the economy of Poland using a computable general equilibrium model. In our simulation scenarios we use the estimates of NTBs that allow us to differentiate the impact of NTBs on trade of Poland, the remaining NMS aggregate, Germany, the largest trading partner of Poland and the rest of EU-15. We show that from a point of view of a small country, where most of international trade is concentrated on exchange with one or a few neighboring trading partners, such as Poland, simultaneous trade liberalization with a third partner will not bring sizeable gains to its economy. We observe US-EU15 trade expansion to be crowding out some of the trade in the most important Polish trading sectors, such as chemicals and motor vehicles. The unfavorable change in the terms of trade makes the gains from trade small while some sectors reduce output by a considerable amount. Keywords: TTIP; trade liberalization; computable general equilibrium; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2015-17 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw Contact information at EDIRC. |
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