Prudent populists? The short-term macroeconomic impact of populist policies in Poland

Michał Brzeziński and Katarzyna Sałach-Dróżdż

No 2023-02, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: Recent research shows that populist governments in general depress countries’ economic growth and fail to improve income distribution. We study the short-term macroeconomic consequences of populist policies implemented in Poland since 2015. Using the augmented synthetic control method, we find that the populists boosted the GDP per capita by almost 8% between 2016 and 2019. We do not find any effect of populism on inflation and estimate only small labor market impacts. The populists improved tax revenue collection and reduced public debt. A generous child benefit program and other redistributive policies introduced by the populists significantly reduced overall poverty and almost eradicated absolute child poverty. Our results imply that anti-establishment populists may be macroeconomically prudent, at least in the short run.

Keywords: populism; economic growth; public finance; income distribution; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 N10 P16 P17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tra
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https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/2496/0 First version, 2023 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2023-02

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