New coincident and leading indicators for the Lebanese economy
Samer Matta
No 6950, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank
Abstract:
Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available.
Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Access to Finance; Debt Markets; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; E-Business (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-06-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSC ... ered/PDF/WPS6950.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6950
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Roula I. Yazigi (ryazigi@worldbank.org).