Predicting World Bank project outcome ratings

Patricia Geli, Aart Kraay (akraay@worldbank.org) and Hoveida Nobakht

No 7001, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio.

Keywords: Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness; Housing&Human Habitats; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Rural Portfolio Improvement; Banks&Banking Reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-08-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ppm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7001

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