Identifying gazelles: expert panels vs. surveys as a means to identify firms with rapid growth potential

Marcel Fafchamps and Christopher Woodruff

No 7647, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: A business plan competition is conducted to test whether survey instruments or panel judges are able to identify the fastest growing firms. Participants submitted six- to eight-page business plans and defended them before a three- or four-judge panel. Applicants are surveyed shortly after they applied and one and two years after the competition. Follow-up surveys are used to construct measures of enterprise growth and baseline surveys and panel scores to construct measures of enterprise growth potential. A survey measure of ability correlates strongly with future growth, but the panel scores add to predictive power even after controlling for ability and other survey variables. The survey questions have more power to explain the variance in growth. Participants presenting before the panel were given a chance to win customized management training. Fourteen months after the training, there is no positive effect of the training on growth of the business.

Keywords: Governance Diagnostic Capacity Building; Macroeconomic Management; Economic Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-04-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cse and nep-sbm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Identifying Gazelles: Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential (2017)
Working Paper: Identifying Gazelles: Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential (2015)
Working Paper: Identifying gazelles: expert panels vs. surveys as a means to identify firms with rapid growth potential (2014)
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