Environment and Development: Penalized Non-Parametric Inference of Global Trends in Deforestation, Pollution and Carbon

Bo Andree, Phoebe Girouard Spencer, Andres Chamorro and Harun Dogo

No 8756, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper revisits the issue of environment and development raised in the 1992 World Development Report, with new analysis tools and data. The paper discusses inference and interpretation in a machine learning framework. The results suggest that production gradually favors conserving the earth's resources as gross domestic product increases, but increased efficiency alone is not sufficient to offset the effects of growth in scale. Instead, structural change in the economy shapes environmental outcomes across GDP. The analysis finds that average development is associated with an inverted $U$-shape in deforestation, pollution, and carbon intensities. Per capita emissions follow a $J$-curve. Specifically, poverty reduction occurs alongside degrading local environments and higher income growth poses a global burden through carbon. Local economic structure further determines the shape, amplitude, and location of tipping points of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The models are used to extrapolate environmental output to 2030. The daunting implications of continued development are a reminder that immediate and sustained global efforts are required to mitigate forest loss, improve air quality, and shift the global economy to a 2°pathway.

Keywords: Global Environment; Inequality; Environmental Disasters&Degradation; Common Carriers Industry; Food&Beverage Industry; Plastics&Rubber Industry; Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies; Textiles; Apparel&Leather Industry; Pulp&Paper Industry; Construction Industry; General Manufacturing; Nutrition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp and nep-env
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/263441551118664212/pdf/WPS8756.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8756

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Roula I. Yazigi ().