Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

Bramka Arga Jafino, Brian James Walsh, Julie Rozenberg and Stephane Hallegatte

No 9417, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate changeon extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results are commensurate with available estimates for the globalpoverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid andinclusive growth with universal access to basic services in 2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimisticbaselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting) and the effect of food prices are responsible for most ofthe impact. The effect of food prices is the most important factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, naturaldisasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia. These results suggest that accelerated action to boostresilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages offer opportunities to do so.

Keywords: Inequality; Science of Climate Change; Climate Change and Health; Climate Change and Environment; Climate Change Impacts; Social Aspects of Climate Change; Health Care Services Industry (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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