Modeling transition in Central Asia: the Case of Kazakhstan

Gilles Dufrénot (), Adelya Ospanova and Alain Sand-Zantman

No wp1001, William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series from William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan

Abstract: This paper presents a small macro-econometric model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. It uses a new approach to test the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when the characteristics of the regressors’ non-stationarity are not known with certainty. The simulations provide insights into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, and rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.

Keywords: Simulation; Forecasting; Transition; Stabilization; Central Asian (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 F47 O53 P39 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: pages
Date: 2010-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-tra
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