Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models

Thomas Url, Rob Hyndman and Alexander Dokumentov
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Thomas Url: WIFO

No 510, WIFO Working Papers from WIFO

Abstract: Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.

Keywords: forecast; labour supply; age-profile; smoothing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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