Recovery Beating Expectations

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (dobrinsky@wiiw.ac.at), Selena Duraković (selena.durakovic@efsa.unsa.ba), Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (isi.mara@yahoo.com), Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
Additional contact information
Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No Autumn2021, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: The economic recovery in CESEE has strengthened further in recent months, resulting in a number of additional upgrades to our growth forecasts for 2021, to 5.4% on the regional average. This good performance has been built on two important foundation stones the adaptation of the CESEE economies to the pandemic and the increasing reluctance of their governments to impose restrictions. Labour markets have recovered, too; labour shortages have been on the rise, albeit, paradoxically, underemployment is still an issue. Despite the recent rise in inflation, driven mostly by supply-side disruptions and energy prices, there have been so far few signs of overheating in the region. The pace of recovery is projected to slow to 3.7% next year and 3.5% in 2023. The risks to this forecast are mostly on the downside, and include particularly unfavourable COVID-19 developments, premature fiscal consolidation, and the upcoming monetary tapering in the US.

Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; Turkey; US; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; coronavirus restrictions; coronavirus vaccination; Recovery and Resilience Facility; private consumption; credit; investment; exports; labour markets; unemployment; short-time work schemes; monetary policy; fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 139 pages including 30 Tables, and 46 Figures
Date: 2021-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published as wiiw Forecast Report

Downloads: (external link)
https://wiiw.ac.at/recovery-beating-expectations-dlp-5933.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2021

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Customer service (customerservice@wiiw.ac.at).