Beneath the Veneer of Calm

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Selena Duraković (), Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson (), Doris Hanzl-Weiss (), Marcus How, Gabor Hunya (), Branimir Jovanović (), Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner (), Isilda Mara (), Olga Pindyuk (), Sandor Richter (), Bernd Christoph Ströhm (), Maryna Tverdostup (), Zuzana Zavarska and Adam Żurawski
Additional contact information
Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html
Richard Grieveson: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/richard-grieveson-s-1172.html
Doris Hanzl-Weiss: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/doris-hanzl-weiss-s-4.html
Gabor Hunya: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/gabor-hunya-s-7.html
Branimir Jovanović: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/branimir-jovanovic-s-878.html
Sebastian Leitner: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/sebastian-leitner-s-23.html
Isilda Mara: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/isilda-mara-s-739.html
Olga Pindyuk: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/olga-pindyuk-s-21.html
Sandor Richter: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/sandor-richter-s-14.html
Bernd Christoph Ströhm: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/bernd-christoph-stroehm-s-1431.html
Maryna Tverdostup: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/maryna-tverdostup-s-1587.html

No Autumn2023, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: The economy of the CESEE region continues to outperform the EU average, but there are notable differences between the various sub-regions. The EU-CEE countries performed worse than expected, due to the recession in Germany, while the Western Balkan countries performed better than expected, thanks to tourism, remittances and FDI. And the CIS countries and Ukraine also did better than anticipated, as they adapted to the new reality. Inflation is proving far more persistent than previously imagined; it is driven not just by global energy prices, but also by company profits, price rises in other sectors and, most recently, higher wages. The price increases are having a serious adverse effect on people’s living standards and poverty, and some indicators have worsened dramatically. Growth in 2024 and 2025 will be lower than previously expected, on account of the global slowdown, the weak EU economy, the more persistent inflation, the tighter monetary conditions and less-supportive fiscal policy. Inflation will also be higher and will not return to 2% any time soon, as its dynamics have become far more complex and are no longer driven just by higher global energy.

Keywords: CESEE; Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; Visegrád group; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; euro area; EU; convergence; Russia-Ukraine war; Russia sanctions; commodity prices; inflation; energy crisis; gas; renewable energy; electricity; monetary and fiscal policy; EU funds; purchasing power; poverty; real wages; remittances; FDI; imports; external debt; interest rates; banking sector; credit; impact on Austria; macroeconomic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 156 pages including 30 Tables and 52 Figures
Date: 2023-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-ene and nep-mac
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