 Monthly Report No. 5/2020Vasily Astrov,
Alexandra Bykova,
Rumen Dobrinsky (),
Richard Grieveson,
Doris Hanzl-Weiß,
Gabor Hunya (),
Sebastian Leitner,
Isilda Mara (),
Olga Pindyuk,
Leon Podkaminer,
Sandor Richter,
Bernd Christoph Ströhm () and
Hermine Vidovic ()
No 2020-05, wiiw Monthly Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw Abstract: Looking for Shelter from the Storm Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2020-21 Executive summary (p. I-VI) May 2020 interim forecast update (p. 1-3) 1. Global overview (by Richard Grieveson; p. 4-7) 2. Regional overview (by Richard Grieveson p. 8-28) Albania Double whammy lays the economy low (by Isilda Mara; p. 30-32) Belarus Risky strategy with uncertain outcomes (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 33-34) Bosnia and Herzegovina Complex governance structure contributing to foreign dependence (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 35-36) Bulgaria The shock will likely be passed on to the labour market (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 37-38) Croatia Rebound in GDP will require recovery in tourism (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 39-40) Czech Republic Paying a high price for its skewed production structure (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 41-42) Estonia Enough fiscal space to weather the crisis (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 43-44) Hungary Crisis management a zigzag course from day to day (by Sándor Richter; p. 45-46) Kazakhstan The state attempts to rescue the economy under a double burden (by Alexandra Bykova; p. 47-49) Kosovo COVID-19 knocks out the government (by Isilda Mara; p. 50-51) Latvia Laxer restrictions cannot prevent a deep recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 52-43) Lithuania Substantial government support to boost the economy after recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 54-55) Moldova Keeping low key (by Gábor Hunya; p. 56-57) Montenegro Tourism’s over-dominance exacerbating economic downturn (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 58-59) North Macedonia Recession looms as pandemic dents vital car industry (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 60-61) Poland Making the best of the epidemic (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 62-63) Romania Strict lockdown and soaring fiscal deficits (by Gábor Hunya; p. 64-65) Russia Facing a double shock (by Vasily Astrov; p. 66-67) Serbia Recent strong growth hits a wall (by Richard Grieveson; p. 68-69) Slovakia Grim outlook ahead (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 70-71) Slovenia Pandemic hits manufacturing and service sectors alike (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 72-73) Turkey Heading back into stormy weather (by Richard Grieveson; p. 74-75) Ukraine IMF assistance crucial to keep the economy afloat (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 76-77) 4. Appendix – Table Summary of CESEE key measures regarding COVID-19 as of 30th April, 2020 (pp. 78-82) Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; new EU Member States; EU; CEE; SEE; CIS; Russia; Ukraine; Romania; Czech Republic; Hungary; Turkey; Serbia; China; US; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; external risks; trade war; EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; digitalisation; servitisation; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; employment; wage growth; migration; inflation; central banks; monetary policy; fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published as wiiw Monthly Report Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2020-05 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in wiiw Monthly Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw Contact information at EDIRC. |
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