COGNITION, OPTIMISM, AND THE FORMATION OF AGE‐DEPENDENT SURVIVAL BELIEFS

Nils Grevenbrock, Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig and Alexander Zimper

International Economic Review, 2021, vol. 62, issue 2, 887-918

Abstract: This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age‐dependent inverse S‐shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well‐documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12497

Related works:
Working Paper: Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs (2020)
Working Paper: Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs (2020)
Working Paper: Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs (2020)
Working Paper: Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs (2018)
Working Paper: Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:62:y:2021:i:2:p:887-918

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0020-6598

Access Statistics for this article

International Economic Review is currently edited by Michael O'Riordan and Dirk Krueger

More articles in International Economic Review from Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().