Dating currency crises and designing early warning systems: Meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions

Nihat Tak and Adem Gök

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2022, vol. 27, issue 3, 3773-3790

Abstract: In order to analyse the currency crises in Turkey over the period of January 1990 and October 2019, we first dated currency crises with meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions. Then, we determined the significant predictors or leading indicators of currency crisis with logistic regression. Finally, we tried to measure and compare the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample performances of our method with an index generated by principal component analysis (PCA). We found that the models using the currency crisis index generated by our method have higher in‐sample and out‐of‐sample performances than the models using the currency crisis index generated by PCA. We concluded that the change in real exchange rate, bank loans over bank deposits, bank reserves over bank assets, growth in foreign reserves, growth in central bank foreign assets, M2 over foreign assets, change in exports, change in imports, industrial production index, M1 growth, M2 growth, foreign reserves over M1, central bank foreign assets over M1 and public sector credit growth are the leading indicators of currency crisis among 20 explanatory variables. As policy implications, we recommend that government and the monetary authority should strictly monitor the ratio of bank loans over bank deposits, public sector credit growth, the volatility of foreign trade, ratio of foreign reserves and central bank foreign assets over money supply among significant explanatory variables to avoid currency crisis as policy implications.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2350

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:3:p:3773-3790

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://jws-edcv.wile ... PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Finance & Economics is currently edited by Mark P. Taylor, Keith Cuthbertson and Michael P. Dooley

More articles in International Journal of Finance & Economics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().