Valuation of bitcoin options

Melanie Cao and Batur Celik

Journal of Futures Markets, 2021, vol. 41, issue 7, 1007-1026

Abstract: We propose an equilibrium valuation model for bitcoin options by extending Cao. Bitcoin is interpreted as a foreign currency in a small open economy where money supply and aggregate dividend are exogenous. The equilibrium bitcoin prices increase with diffusive and jump risks of these two exogenous factors. Analytical option pricing formulas are obtained with Merton's model as a special case. Static analysis reveals that a bitcoin call (put) option value increases (decreases) with the money supply growth rate. Numerical analysis shows that all risks lead to a positive premium in option prices relative to the Black–Scholes model.

Date: 2021
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