What Do We Know About Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe?

W. Lutz and S. Scherbov

Working Papers from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Abstract: This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low assumptions use for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond essentially to those of Eurostat. these high-low ranges were assumed to cover 67 percent and 90 percent of all future paths, depending on the model. The results show convincingly that very significant population aging over the coming decades is not just a scenario of unknown probability, but is practically a certainty. By 2050 the proportion above 60 is likely to increase by about 60 percent whereas the proportion of children and youngsters will fall by about 20 percent. This trend is much less uncertain for the elderly than for the young.

Date: 1999-03
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