The Nature of the Loss Ratio in Property-Casualty Insurance

Peter M. Ellis

Journal of Insurance Issues, 1998, vol. 21, issue 1, 46-62

Abstract: The aggregate loss ratio in the United States stock property-casualty insurance industry is represented with an autoregressive AR(3) model. It is demonstrated with a Monte Carlo simulation that the loss ratio is quite unstable. Annual growth has been strong for both premium volume and losses, but the loss ratio is found to fluctuate unsteadily as an AR(3) process. Also, there is a continuing upward drift to the loss ratio that cannot continue without bringing failed loss coverage to the industry.

Date: 1998
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