Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate

Minu Philip (), Debraj Ray and S. Subramanian
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S. Subramanian: Independent researcher

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, with a current level of around 1.7%. The world average rate is far higher. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. We use age-specific fatality rates from 17 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases, to “predict" India’s CFR. In most cases, those predictions yield even lower numbers, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the analysis with a decomposition exercise, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death for a more relevant perspective under a growing pandemic. Our exercise underscores the importance of careful measurement and interpretation of the data, and emphasizes the dangers of a misplaced complacency that could arise from an exclusive concern with aggregate statistics such as the CFR.

Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate (2021)
Working Paper: Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate (2020)
Working Paper: Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:1309

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