A MULTI-MODEL ANALYSIS OF POST-2020 MITIGATION EFFORTS OF FIVE MAJOR ECONOMIES

Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld (), David E. H. J. Gernaat, Shuichi Ashina, Katherine V. Calvin, Amit Garg, Morna Isaac, Paul L. Lucas, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Sander A. C. Otto, Shilpa Rao, Priyadarshi R. Shukla, Jasper van Vliet and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Additional contact information
Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
David E. H. J. Gernaat: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
Shuichi Ashina: NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba-City, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Katherine V. Calvin: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, USA
Amit Garg: IIMAHD Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, India
Morna Isaac: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
Paul L. Lucas: PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Ioanna Mouratiadou: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Sander A. C. Otto: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
Shilpa Rao: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Priyadarshi R. Shukla: IIMAHD Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, India
Jasper van Vliet: PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Detlef P. van Vuuren: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands;

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2013, vol. 04, issue 04, 1-24

Abstract: This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan, and USA) in the context of the 2°C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2°C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China, and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on end-use efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors.

Keywords: Regional; mitigation efforts; abatement; technological implication; climate policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400125

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