A CROSS-MODEL COMPARISON OF GLOBAL LONG-TERM TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION UNDER A 2°C CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL TARGET

Bob van der Zwaan (), H. Rösler (), T. Kober (), T. Aboumahboub (), K. V. Calvin (), D. E. H. J. Gernaat (), G. Marangoni () and D. McCOLLUM ()
Additional contact information
H. Rösler: Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies, Radarweg 60, 1043 NT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
T. Kober: Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies, Radarweg 60, 1043 NT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
T. Aboumahboub: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473, Potsdam, Germany
K. V. Calvin: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA
D. E. H. J. Gernaat: Utrecht University, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
G. Marangoni: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy
D. McCOLLUM: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2013, vol. 04, issue 04, 1-24

Abstract: We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, totalCO2emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sectorCO2emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030–2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

Keywords: Climate policies; low-carbon energy growth; technological innovation; mitigation costs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400137

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