Reassessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in China

Jie Liu (), Changyi Liu () and Yan Wen ()
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Jie Liu: Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Liangxiang College Park, Fangshan Dist., Beijing 102488, China
Changyi Liu: National Climate Center, Zhongguancun Nandajie 46, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Yan Wen: National Climate Center, Zhongguancun Nandajie 46, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China

Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), 2015, vol. 03, issue 02, 1-14

Abstract: Nonlinearity and adaptation effect are rarely taken into consideration in the existing literature of empirical studies on climate change impacts, which may lead to bias estimation of the impacts on agricultural production. This paper aims to reassess the impacts on crop yields (rice, wheat, and maize) by incorporating the terms of nonlinearity and adaptation into a provincial panel data model and further study the impacts of future climate change under the represented concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Results reveal that the historical warming temperature benefits rice but harm wheat and maize productions, and decreasing precipitation benefits rice and maize but harm wheat production. Adaptation can significantly mitigate the negative impacts. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0, after adaptation, the yield changes attributed to future climate change vary from 0.66% to 0.98% for rice, -0.65% to -0.84% for wheat, and -0.24 to 0.08% for maize. The shifts of means of climatic variables impose no challenge on national food security of China.

Keywords: Climate change; agriculture; nonlinearities; adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1142/S2345748115500116

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