Self-affinity in the dengue fever time series

S. M. Azevedo, H. Saba (), J. G. V. Miranda (), A. S. Nascimento Filho () and M. A. Moret
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S. M. Azevedo: Programa de Modelagem Computacional - SENAI - Cimatec, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil2Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil
H. Saba: Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
J. G. V. Miranda: Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
A. S. Nascimento Filho: Programa de Modelagem Computacional - SENAI - Cimatec, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
M. A. Moret: Programa de Modelagem Computacional - SENAI - Cimatec, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil3Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2016, vol. 27, issue 12, 1-9

Abstract: Dengue is a complex public health problem that is common in tropical and subtropical regions. This disease has risen substantially in the last three decades, and the physical symptoms depict the self-affine behavior of the occurrences of reported dengue cases in Bahia, Brazil. This study uses detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to verify the scale behavior in a time series of dengue cases and to evaluate the long-range correlations that are characterized by the power law α exponent for different cities in Bahia, Brazil. The scaling exponent (α) presents different long-range correlations, i.e. uncorrelated, anti-persistent, persistent and diffusive behaviors. The long-range correlations highlight the complex behavior of the time series of this disease. The findings show that there are two distinct types of scale behavior. In the first behavior, the time series presents a persistent α exponent for a one-month period. For large periods, the time series signal approaches subdiffusive behavior. The hypothesis of the long-range correlations in the time series of the occurrences of reported dengue cases was validated. The observed self-affinity is useful as a forecasting tool for future periods through extrapolation of the α exponent behavior. This complex system has a higher predictability in a relatively short time (approximately one month), and it suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategies. However, predictions for large periods using DFA are hidden by the subdiffusive behavior.

Keywords: Detrended fluctuation analysis; epidemic process; subdiffusive behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183116501436

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