A Score Function-Based Method of Forecasting Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series

Abhishekh (), Surendra Singh Gautam () and S. R. Singh ()
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Abhishekh: Department of Mathematics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
Surendra Singh Gautam: #x2020;Government Polytechnic College, Gariyaband, Chhattisgarh, India
S. R. Singh: Department of Mathematics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

New Mathematics and Natural Computation (NMNC), 2018, vol. 14, issue 01, 91-111

Abstract: Intuitionistic fuzzy set plays a vital role in data analysis and decision-making problems. In this paper, we propose an enhanced and versatile method of forecasting using the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy time series (FTS) based on their score function. The developed method has been presented in the form of simple computational steps of forecasting instead of complicated max–min compositions operator of intuitionistic fuzzy sets to compute the relational matrix R. Also, the proposed method is based on the maximum score and minimum accuracy function of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) to fuzzify the historical time series data. Further intuitionistic fuzzy logical relationship groups are defined and also provide a forecasted value and lies in an interval and is more appropriate rather than a crisp value. Furthermore, the proposed method has been implemented on the historical student enrollments data of University of Alabama and obtains the forecasted values which have been compared with the existing methods to show its superiority. The suitability of the proposed model has also been examined to forecast the movement of share market price of State Bank of India (SBI) at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The results of the comparison of MSE and MAPE indicate that the proposed method produces more accurate forecasting results.

Keywords: Fuzzy time series; intuitionistic fuzzy time series; intuitionistic fuzzy logical relations; score function; movement of market price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1142/S1793005718500072

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