An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition

Bharat Upadhyay and Douglas Young ()
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Douglas Young: School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University

No 2005-1, Working Papers from School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University

Abstract: An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition Abstract: Roy’s safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.

Keywords: repeated auction; Investment risk, Monte Carlo simulation, no-till, rent-purchase, risk, safety-first, technology adoption, transition strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2005-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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