Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance

Brad Humphreys and Thomas Miceli
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Thomas Miceli: University of Connecticut, Department of Economics

No 16-26, Working Papers from Department of Economics, West Virginia University

Abstract: The classical Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH) informs economists’ understanding consumer decisions to attend sporting events and models of team revenue generation. Coates, Humphreys and Zhou (2014) developed a reference dependent preference based consumer choice model under uncertainty to motivate the UOH in which loss-averse consumers prefer games with certain outcomes. We develop an alternative model based on a standard expected utility model of fan behavior which incorporates fans’ decisions to travel to away games and aggregates decisions across local and visiting fans. This model generates predictions consistent with the classical UOH and concave team and league-wide total revenue functions.

Keywords: outcome uncertainty; game attendance; aggregation; travel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 L83 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2016-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo and nep-upt
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Journal Article: OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY, FAN TRAVEL, AND AGGREGATE ATTENDANCE (2020)
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