The Impact of US Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: An International Credit Channel

Sangyup Choi

No 2017rwp-113, Working papers from Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute

Abstract: I document that US nancial uncertainty shocks, measured by an increase in VIX, have a substantial impact on the output of emerging market economies (EMEs) without a material impact on US output during the last two decades. To understand this puzzling phenomenon, I propose a credit channel as a propagation mechanism of US nancial uncertainty shocks to EMEs. I augment a boom-bust cycle model of EMEs by Schneider and Tornell [2004] with a portfolio choice model of constrained international investors. As international investors pull their money from EMEs|to satisfy their Value-at-Risk constraints|in response to nancial uncertainty shocks, borrowing costs increase and domestic credit contracts. Higher borrowing costs and a decline in domestic credit, in turn, lead to a fall in investment in the non-tradable sector that causes a real depreciation via currency mismatch prevalent in EMEs and a decline in total output through sectoral linkages. The empirical regularity obtained by estimating structural VARs of 18 EMEs is consistent with the prediction of the model.

Keywords: Uncertainty shocks; Emerging market economies; Credit channel; Vector Autoregressions; Portfolio choice model; Value-at-Risk constraint (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 F30 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34pages
Date: 2017-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Journal Article: The Impact of US Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Emerging Market Economies: An International Credit Channel (2018)
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